Wednesday, March 9, 2016

LoL Analysis: 2016 NALCS, TL vs TSM (Week 7, Day 2)

TL played a smart Saturday game against TIP, but it was against TIP. TSM should have a big advantage in the top lane but Svenskeren has to keep up with Dardoch. I would expect TSM to ban Nidalee to make sure Dardoch doesn’t power farm into ganks. This should be a #TSMWin on paper, but so should a lot of games.

Picks and Bans – Not sure about the first-pick Lulu for TL (Nidalee was indeed banned). I don’t like that matchup for Lourlo into Hauntzer (really should just stick with Nautilus) and if you go with a tank in the top, you’re going to need Dardoch to build aggressively with Lulu mid. TSM go with a standard Alistar/Elise with Kalista off the table. TL counter with Lee Sin/Janna, which is fine, but I don’t love how their comp is shaping up. TSM keep playing standard with Ezreal/Orianna, who was really good for Bjergsen on Saturday. TL put all their eggs in Piglet’s pen and end with Nautilus/Lucian. The super tank has been good for Lourlo, but there just isn’t that much damage. TL have good disengage with Janna and Lulu but TSM have a lot of ways to catch the pig with Elise, Orianna and Alistar. Dardoch is going to have to spend a lot of time in the bot lane to keep his duo from falling behind, because that is the game for TSM.

Early Game – Lucian can bully Ezreal before Ezreal gets items and TL are smart to swap up to get Aussie lanes and go hard on Doublelift. They see a heal start from Yellowstar and know they are safe from aggro for a couple levels. Doublelift tries to stay in lane to catch the wave coming in but that costs him a flash and Yellowstar’s exhaust. Forget Dardoch, the duo lane is straight outplaying for CLG! Both junglers rotate up and nobody dies for a while but the early back from Doublelift allows TL to pick up a kill on Yellowstar a few minutes later – that’s a dive and a death on Doublelift. The turret goes down a few minutes later but this still isn’t a disaster for TSM – they need to stay calm and win the solo lanes knowing their comp scales better than TL’s.

21:20 – This is just a horrible trade from Doublelift and Yellowstar. There is no way they can kill Nautilus under his turret, they can barely tickle him with Doublelift stacking his Tear. They both take turret shots and have to run but the TP from Fenix means both are dead. TSM follow and lose Sven AND Hauntzer. What are they doing? They have a scaling team, why are they looking for fights??? They blow a bunch of summoners when their duo lane was already dead to rights. As for TL, beautiful coordination between all 5 members to get themselves even further ahead. Doublelift is a disaster.

27:10 – TSM are bent on protecting their blue side jungle, but this is not what they should be doing. They think they find Dardoch but the rest of TL are there and easily clean up more kills, aided by a fantastic Janna ult. Another 3-0 and that’s the mid lane outer and bot lane tier 2. TSM tried a pulverize-shockwave, but Dardoch ward hopped out and Matt was actually headbutted away into the perfect ult location. THIS is now a disaster for TSM – a 4/0/1 Lucian and 3/0/2 Lulu, 10-0 for TL in kills and 6-0 in turrets, a 10k gold lead inside 20 minutes.

31:05 – Piglet caught and Doublelift gets the red. TSM get a turret and kill but TL are still in charge. TL are smart to rotate to the TSM bot lane, forcing Hauntzer to go clear. TSM they stay too long to try and take the top lane outer – completely agree with Kobe, this is NOT what they want. Clear the jungle, set vision, and come back with Hauntzer – you’ll get it eventually. That’s Baron and 1.5 inhibs for TL.

38:20 – TSM can’t crack the Nautilus front line. Yellowstar engages but the GP ult is misplaced, too far back. Shockwave catches Piglet but he’s shielded, Dardoch kicks a couple and TSM lose another fight 1-4. Doublelift pushes them off the nexus turrets but they get the two inhibs they wanted. TL close the game easily from here – none of their members are killable.

TL played their comp perfectly and Lourlo has finally found a good champion in Nautilus and Dardoch’s Lee Sin was on-point. I questioned their draft but the one-carry approach works if that carry is Piglet and Dardoch ganks his lane heavily. TSM did not seem to respect their opponents, yet again. Doublelift and Yellowstar had no business trying to trade with Lucian/Janna and the team tunneled in for early fights they had no shot at winning. This is not the sendoff that they wanted going into #IEM Katowice.

Note on the video – keep watching at 46:00 for an interview with the popular #NALCS psychologist Weldon Green.

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