Tuesday, March 15, 2016

LoL Analysis: 2016 IEM Katowice, TSM vs OG (Group A, Game 3 of 3)

Despite a dodgy end to game 2, I still feel like TSM have more tools coming into this game with their ability to split push and play the map. All they have to do is manage the global pressure from OG. Surely their superior talent will show in the 3 game series???

Picks and Bans – OG first-pick Lucian, which is fine with Kalista banned, but not what I think they want going into a whole litany of possible TSM lineups. Doublelift hasn’t been great on Ezreal, but has been picking him with abandon. TSM respond with Alistar/TF, which I agree with Deficio is a direct callout on PowerOfEvil’s champion pool (Corki and LeBlanc were banned). Syndra would be perfect against TF. The next few picks are OG Elise/Braum and TSM Ezreal/Lee Sin. Svenskeren’s Lee Sin hasn’t been great – he needs to find better skillshots. And then… OG pick Talon/Trundle? Uh… ok… So that’s an assassin that will bring early game power against TF, but he will need to be heavily ganked in mid lane. Problem is TSM have a Fiora vs. Trundle again in the top lane… Elise has a bunch of spiderlings but can't be everywhere. TSM have won P/B yet again. Then again, we’ve said that 3 times at #IEM and they only have one victory so far to show for it…

Early Game – OG initiate a lane swap to protect  Soaz and speed up the pace. After a lane swap, Yellowstar shows mid lane and he and Bjergsen blow 4 summoner for 2 from PowerOfEvil – which I actually like. You don’t need Bjergsen necessarily to win the lane hard, but without Flash, PowerOfEvil will be hard pressed to return onto Bjergsen. Meanwhile, Hauntzer will be a problem – unless he takes turret shots and gives up a CS advantage to Soaz. 16:20 the midlane gank finally comes through for OG and both Amazing and Mithy means a dead TF. The real problem is that Soaz is 2 levels up on Hautzer. OG get another on Yellowstar in the bot lane but ceded a kill to Bjergsen in mid – not a bad trade considering they want to push the pace of this game.

18:30 – TSM send all 5 to the top lane outer and they get Amazing, Soaz, and the turret. But OG collapse hard on the back and take out Doublelift and Hauntzer while getting the kills on their carries. I still like this for TSM – OG are unable to do anything with the kills and the long lanes will make it tougher to catch Hauntzer in the split push. A couple of kills go back and forth over the next few minutes from imprudent aggression from both teams. OG want to catch, not dive, and TSM don’t need to fight at all – stack the Ezreal and build towards split push. TSM are able to take turrets however with their superior wave clear.

25:00What are TSM doing? They are found rotating to the bot lane and should just poke, but for some reason Doublelift is in the Dragon pit by himself with arcane shift on CD. How many times do we have to see Peter caught by himself for no reason!? Mid lane outer and the gold lead go to OG. Lucian/Talon have 6/7 OG kills.

30:00Still no idea what TSM are doing. These are the same shot-calling mistakes we've seen from TSM again and again. TSM see OG threatening top and Bjergsen ults in with Hauntzer to kill Soaz at the bot lane tier 2. They barely manage the kill but are caught low under the OG tower, all while PowerOfEvil is alone in the top lane. Then TSM make it worse by having Svenskeren and Yellowstar dive over the wall where Doublelift can’t follow them and Yellowstar dies too. It was a 3v3 at best; they would have had to win hard to take the tier 2 while PowerOfEvil does 50% damage on the inhibitor turret. Agree with Montecristo that they didn’t need this! TSM fans have to be worried about these discombobulated engages. OG have a deathgrip on this game.

34:00 – Aaaaand this is why TSM fans continue to believe in this team. Bjergsen straight melts Amazing and the chase is on. Ult, Gold Card, and Zonya’s allows the rest of the team to catch up, dropping Mithy and Zven in short order. They head immediately for Baron which OG cannot really contest without their jungler. They try but Yellowstar does a good job peeling. This is the most coordinated play we’ve seen from TSM in Katowice. TSM push mid, then bot with the Baron buff, catch Soaz out of position, and take the bottom inhibitor.

39:40 – Looks like the same old TSM with Hauntzer going too hard and the rest of the team tunneling, but Bjergsen had been waiting in a bush expressly for this opportunity. TSM interrupt the backs and the midlaner takes down 1.5 nexus turrets. Death timers are still short enough for Hauntzer to TP after respawn and help pick up another couple kills. A long chase for PowerOfEvil allows TSM to set up another uncontested Baron. That death grip for OG? Gone. Man I have to be more careful calling these games. TSM push in methodically with a big power advantage and get the nexus.

What have we learned from these two games? For OG, they clearly have major weaknesses on their roster and are struggling to make up for them in their calls. They picked poor comps to deal with the TSM split push and despite a big lead in this, were outplayed by TSM mechanically. For TSM, you keep seeing glimpses of the team they could be. When they go super aggressive as a 5 man unit in the right location, it's tough to top their teamfight execution. The problems come when they fight when they need to push or go in without the teammates. Still, they've had significant leads in each of the 4 games they've played so far and have a chance at a few more.

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