Tuesday, March 15, 2016

LoL Analysis: 2016 IEM Katowice, TSM vs OG (Group A, Game 2 of 3)

TSM are up and look like a clearly better team. That's exactly when their opponents are usually the most dangerous...

Picks and Bans – Nautilus is banned from Hauntzer but Kalista makes it through and OG get it for Zven. TSM has to take Braum away and go back to Fiora, which I like, but only if they remain committed to the split push. They played a 4-1 in the last game but need to continue to focus on leaving Hauntzer alone and trusting him. OG go with Elise/Trundle – Trundle hasn’t been relevant for a couple patches and while he’s a good teamfight champion, he will eventually start struggling against Fiora. Svenskeren goes back to Lee Sin (weird that Nidalee makes it all the way through) and a very standard Lucian. OG finish with old-school TF and Thresh, which allows Bjergsen to last-pick Corki. I like this draft a lot better for TSM if they play correctly around Hauntzer.

Early Game – TSM try an invade but don’t do anything so OG have a level advantage in the matched top duo lane. Sven’s jungle path goes hard to the bot lane to gank Soaz and does get his flash. That gives OG permission to go in the top lane and they push Doublelift all the way back to the turret. That’s a dead Braum a short while letter. 16:15 is a return dive on Soaz that OG know is coming (they tried to kill Amazing on the way down). TF ults in and Hauntzer takes a lot of turret shots and Doublelift is caught against the wall. Mithy flashes over the wall but nobody takes his lantern and is killed in return. But importantly, Zven gets a ton of solo experience in the top lane and a good portion of the turret’s health. I agree with Monte’s post-fight analysis – TSM just want to get Fiora up in lane, not necessarily fast push it or dive. They should not have gone all-in under the turret with the TF able to ult in. The first 10 minutes are a win for OG – Fiora is pushing but so is Kalista and Trundle will recover better than Doublelift’s Lucian will.

Mid Game – The teams skirmish across the map through 30 minutes. TSM goes down 7-13 in kills, but most of those are meaningless as OG are unable to push objectives off won fights and are down 4-5 in taken turrets. PowerOfEvil’s TPs and Ults have been horrible, but Mithy has been very good on Thresh (one of my favorite supports to play with since my positioning is horrible and he saves my bacon). On the TSM side, Doublelift/Yellowstar continue to struggle but Hauntzer is a beast. Without true tanks on either side, he teamfights just don’t last very long. At 42:00, TSM finally catch Kalista, get Baron, and kill the top lane inhibitor. TSM need to split Hauntzer to the bot lane and head down mid with 4. I didn’t think they’d get another inhibitor turret, but Hauntzer’s riposte of  TF ult/gold card allows them to push down the middle one at 45:40. This should be a won game for TSM, right? RIGHT!? 

TSM stay too long, lose a few members, Sven takes the spider/lantern into a death, and OG get an midlane inhibitor as well. That’s fine, Hauntzer TPs back, sends PowerOfEvil on a wild goose chase, and knocks down the middle inhibitor of OG. Then a bit of a disaster – TSM all recall in the same bush and 3 are interrupted by Zven. That’s Svenskeren, Bjergsen, and Hauntzer on the run. Svenskeren gets flayed first, but they knock down PowerOfEvil AGAIN. TSM try to re-engage but they have a big numbers disadvantage and OG win it 3-1. Bjergsen makes a hero 1v4 play to stop the base siege. What a crazy late game. OG continue the madness with an aggressive Baron play. I feel like the game is slipping out of TSM’s hands. The opportunity to truly split push is kind of over and Doublelift gets caught trying to push a lane alone again. That’s a bottom inhibitor for OG but nothing more, not without stronger siege. Another won fight at 56:10 with Svenskeren unable to kick anyone back is the game for OG.

This was another game that TSM again failed to commit fully to the split push. Their failed dive on the midlane inhib after the first Baron really hurt. Again, with Corki/Fiora, you don’t need to worry about leaving objectives half-alive – I know the inhib will regen, but you take it so quickly once the tower is down. They should have continued to let Fiora push the bot lane and even focused on stalling OG out to get that inhibitor down. Instead, they are caught in a bad fight and OG get an inhibitor of their own. Also – how many times do we have to see Doublelift caught in a long lane? Maybe it’s him, maybe it’s the call, but why not have Corki in that lane instead with better escapes than a Lucian that has to be closer to the minions to clear? For OG, I still agree with Monte that their draft was questionable and I think they are fortunate to win this game. TF did put pressure on the split push but they basically won teamfights with Trundle that TSM had no business fighting. Hauntzer and Svenskeren will be better in Game 3, but PowerOfEvil was terrible. Also, TSM on blue side means they will not lose the Kalista again if she’s open and I don’t think they’re afraid of Soaz.

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