Yes, I realize the playoffs already started. I wanted to get some thoughts down while they're fresh.
The Warrior’s defense is like ballet. Nobody is on an
island. For a jump shooting team, being able to rely on the defense is such a
relief. Bogut is causing havoc in the lane – just watch what happens when
anybody, with or without the ball, tries to cross that area. He’s
irreplaceable, and so is Draymond Green. How many players in the NBA can do
what Green does? Kawhi gets close, but there’s a difference between a small
forward that can slide to big forward and a big forward that can slide to
shooting guard (defensively). LeBron could do it but we haven’t seen peak
defensive LeBron for two years. Milsap has the body to do it but his instincts
and feet are nowhere near as good.
Anthony Daivs is a beast. He will only get better. But have
the Pelicans already wasted a good chunk of his prime? It’s obvious that Jrue
Holiday isn’t working out. Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon have found a way to
coexist, but neither of them are good enough shooters to space the floor around
Davis, requiring the Pellies to turn to Ryan Anderson, who is an overall minus
player. You can’t call him a stretch four when he doesn’t defend or rebound his
position. They’ve given up significant assets, including picks and cap space,
to assemble the present roster, and I’m not sure anybody other than Davis will
be on the Pellies team that can call itself a contender. New Orleans can look
north and see a Memphis team that is dangerous despite cramped spacing, but
that Grizzlies team also has two players (Conley and Gasol) on relatively
team-friendly contracts. The Pellies are on thin ice.
Houston really lucked into the matchup with Dallas. Their
defense played well against the Mavs in game one, but the offense was only held
afloat by the Mavs utter lack of defensive pieces around Tyson Chandler. The
game plan Rick Carlysle threw at James Harden worked beautifully. The Mavs were
able to stop Harden from penetrating and made the other Rockets beat them.
Without Patrick Beverley and Donatus Motiejunas to space the floor, the Rockets
watched Josh Smith stare at open 3s for several Mississippi’s before unleashing
some dreadful shots. Harden has carried a heavy load all year, but it’s getting
tougher and the defenses are more prepared to stop him. Daryl Morey is rightly
praised for the pieces he’s added, but it’s one he gave away (Isaiah Canaan)
who might have made a difference.
The Mavs are playing way above their weight class, and it
shows when any of the starters go out. There just isn’t anyone dangerous on
either end of the floor. Going inside with A’Mare kind of worked, but that’s
not going to win a series. People forget that the 2011 title team had Jason
Terry and JJ Barea coming off the bench. They also had quality defensive depth
in the frontcourt, and yeah, Dirk Nowitzki was inhuman. The Mavs fought a
valiant fight by making some big moves, but it looks like they’re staring at
another summer of uncertainty.
The Clippers can complain about having to play the Spurs,
but all their weaknesses may come to naught if Chris Paul can continue to do
what he did in Game 1. Gregg Popovich is as good at adjusting as anyone, but
it’s going to be a struggle for him to try and stop the Clippers’ starting
offense. There just isn’t a good place to hide Parker, and he doesn’t have
enough depth at big forward or center. I felt like the Clippers controlled game
1 from start to finish – they got the looks they wanted and played the defense
they wanted. Yeah, the Spurs went on a few runs, but those seemed to coincide
with the Clippers missing shots or rotations they normally make. And if the
second unit can prove that it won’t hemorrhage points, look out.
Meanwhile, the Spurs looked a step slow and didn’t really
get in a rhythm. The stats show that they missed a bunch of open shots, but I
don’t think those shots were necessarily as open as you’d think. Parker was
invisible, Manu was the same Manu we’ve seen for the last couple postseasons
(exciting, and frustrating all at the same time), and their bigs were dominated
by LA’s. The Spurs bench that played big minutes all year because of Pop’s
superior planning/prioritizing looked lost against an inferior Clippers second
unit. Zach Lowe wrote a great
piece on the Spurs’ fantastic run over the last decade plus, and I really
hope it’s not over. I hope that Pop can reinvent this team on the fly around
Kawhi’s brilliance and pieces that the Spurs develop out of nowhere. But those
pieces don’t look like they’re on this Spurs team.
Portland lucked into the 4th seed but they couldn’t
luck into home-court advantage, and they can’t luck into a good defense with
their current healthy roster. Losing Wes Matthews was huge – he gave them
tremendous defensive flexibility on the wing. And as fun as Damian Lillard is
to watch, as much as he was an assassin against Houston last year in a wildly
entertaining first round matchup, he is just not an NBA-level defender yet.
Point guard is the hardest position to guard since it’s so deep – there are
just so many guys that can embarrass you in so many ways. But I remember a
mid-March game against the Clippers, one of those games that can get lost in
the schedule as teams just try to survive to the playoffs. The Clippers only
won by 4, but Chris Paul scored 41 on 21 shots. He went 10/10 from the line and
tossed 17 dimes. Chris Paul wasn’t just hot – he carved the Blazers up on the
pick and roll. Blake or DeAndre would come up on a high screen and just
obliterate Lillard. It seemed like Paul would be at the free throw line and
Lillard would still be caught behind the 3 point line on the screen. This isn’t
all Damian’s fault – Chris Paul is the best in the world at using hesitation crossover
and in-and-out dribbles after the pick to throw the defense’s timing completely
off. And his screeners have played with him enough that they know where to roll
to, when not to get in his way, and how to keep the pocket passing lane open.
But Lillard would consistently get caught in the beautiful ballet, allowing the
Clippers to create 5-on-4s with Paul still dribbling. Chris Paul generally
doesn’t need more help.
Memphis? Memphis is good. The defense will always be there.
Gasol is a savant. Conley might be getting some of his explosion back. Jeff
Green is fitting again more and more and if they can put enough shooting
together, there’s no reason they can’t make the Western Conference Finals again
and make some noise once there. They have some feisty bench cogs that fit
different needs: Vince Carter for some offensive creativity, Beno Udrhi for
ball handling, and Tony Allen for that vice-grip defense. This team is good.
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