Atlanta Hawks. I did not like the way the Hawks ended their
year. Yeah, a few guys were banged up – is it possible that’s because they were
playing at half speed, trying not to
get injured (obviously I’m speaking of guys other than Thabo Sefolosha). They
would get up for marquee games, like a late matchup with the Cavs, but
otherwise coasted with that huge lead for the 1st seed. And I hated
it. Full disclosure – I had Kyle Korver and Paul Misap on my fantasy team, and
they killed me in the semifinals with DNP-rests. But compare this to how the
Warriors finished the year. Sure the warriors had guys miss games too, but for
the most part they kept everything going. Momentum in sports is notoriously
hard to quantify, so much so that it doesn’t exist. But I believe that there is
something to the notion of the hot team, the team that peaks in May and June.
It’s like when you play pickup and your team wins two or three in a row – you
get fatigued, but you also build a nice chemistry, you start figuring out what
each person can and should do. Maybe Atlanta will be fine – of course, they
will win their first round matchup easily and possibly their second as well,
considering how Washington and Toronto are playing. I’m just concerned that
after a few weeks of playing disjointed lineups, the defensive rotations won’t
be as crisp and the ball won’t fly as fast on offense.
Brookyln Nets. This is such a sad team. Sure, flipping Kevin
Garnett for Thad Young was good, but what’s the plan here? They completely
mortgaged their future for two guys that are no longer on the team, took a
swing at a shooting guard that somehow isn’t a star despite playing an
extremely thin position, and took a huge swing on a player playing perhaps the
league’s deepest position (point guard). They don’t have a prayer of playing
defense or improving their team in the summer. Let’s move on.
Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers’ offense hasn’t been
pretty to watch at times. All that Princeton offense, cut without the ball
stuff that David Blatt blustered about early in the year turned out to be
nonsense (pretty sure LeBron put an end to that). I think LeBron realizes that
the team just doesn’t have the pieces to learn that type of offense on the fly
and is better suited to focus on its strengths – isolation play. So sometimes
the ball stops while LeBron or Kyrie will pound it above the break. But there
is also a subtle art to isolation play, especially the brand the Cavs have
exhibited in two playoff games. They don’t just bring the ball up and go at
you. They’ll run a couple actions until they get the exact mismatch they’re
looking for. They’ve figured out that they have 3-4 deadly screen/roll
combinations that, if aren’t handled properly, can score on their own. When the
defense sells out to stop those actions, it usually results in a favorable
isolation matchup. And yeah, the Hawks offense is more fun to watch, bit in the
playoffs, when the pace slows, a team needs to have this ability to draw out
possessions efficiently. Of course this Cavs team will probably only go as far
as its defense (13th by Opp FG% and 18th by DRtg) will
take it. Boston just doesn’t have the horses to hurt them on that end, but the
Bulls might.
Boston have some nice things going. They are obviously
well-coached. Guys know what to do and Brad Steven’s has visibly gotten the
players to play within his system. They’re just not very good defensively on
the wing (anybody not guarded by Avery Bradley is a problem) as Marcus Smart is
still learning NBA-level defense. Kyrie Irving is only 2 years older than
Smart, but those t2 years were spent in the NBA, and there’s no substitute for
that kind of experience or intuition. On offense, the Celtics spacing is just
awful. They try to make the right, unselfish play, but there is just too little
room with the interior passes they are trying to thread. I’m shocked that this
team is in the playoffs (I guess it is the East), but they are clearly a couple
guys away.
Chicago Bulls. I don’t know how long the Derrick Rose can play at a high
level, but dang if it doesn’t feel good. I really hope for him, for the team,
for the league, that his body gets right. He and Jimmy Butler have something
special. The Bulls overall have something special. They are playing guys out of
position – notably Nikola Mirotic, but maybe for this year, they can get by
with that. Atlanta has guys you can hide defenders on. So does Cleveland. If
the Bulls play their chips right, they have a team good enough to get to the
Finals and, depending on the matchup, make some noise. More than anything, I
want to see more of Rose doing his thing, getting to the rack, running the
team, feeding the hot hand.
Milwaukee Bucks. Another team you thought destined for
another lottery before Jason Kidd resurrected things. This Bucks team can be
really good. I like the fit between Khris Middleton and Giannis Atentekuompo,
especially the challenges they could pose on defense. Of course, none of the
Bucks defenders are good enough to really guard on the wing, but the tools are
undeniably there. After toiling in obscurity John Henson may turn into a
perfect rim-protecting big man, a poor man’s Rudy Gobert. It’s like someone
finally realized with Henson, Gobert, and Hassan Whiteside that someone who’s
huge, long and can jump has value. Go figure! You just have to teach him to hit
the glass and be in the right spots defensively. When Jabari comes back next
year, I really feel like this team will take a leap. They can play big on the
wing and small in the frontcourt – I love teams that are both big and small.
They have the tools to potentially switch everything. This could really be fun.
Toronto Raptors. Masai Uriji is a smart man, and throughout
his NBA career, he’s shown an ability to plan a few steps ahead. So I’ll give
him some time with this one. But the Raptors are not a contender and they don’t
really have a clear path to becoming one. We’ve probably seen what we need to
out of Kyle Lowry – a good defender and ball handler who is just wild enough
and shoots just poorly enough to keep him outside the top 10 at his position
(again, the deepest in the NBA). DeMar DeRozan is just good enough to take
contested shots but isn’t quite good enough a shooter to really bend the
defense. Terrence Ross is an enigma, with the tools to be Kawhi Leonard lite but
not the game. James Johnson play less than he should. Jonas Valanciunus is a good
enough rim protector but isn’t somebody you game plan around. He’s gotten
better every year and is only 22, but he doesn’t look versatile enough to build
either an offense or a defense around. Lou Williams is in a perfect spot, and
was a pretty worthy 6th man of the year, but is not going to push
you over the top. They let Ed Davis go for reasons unknown. I just don’t know
what this team does to get better.
Washington Wizards. The Wizards have one advantage over
Toronto: John Wall is 24 to Kyle Lowry’s 29 (did you know that Lowry is on the
back-end of his career? Crap) and Bradley Beal is 21 to DeMar DeRozan’s 25. The
Wizard’s young cornerstones will be with them for another extension at least,
setting them up to be on the next great Wizards team. We still don’t know what
they have in Otto Porter, but at least he has some pedigree. It’s these young
players that give Washington hope despite the blown draft picks, poor trades,
and bad contract. Despite Randy Wittman not know what a basketball court looks
like. There’s hope in D.C.
And because I ca'nt help myself: https://vine.co/v/ezttEPM33jn
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