Louisville over Duke: First: let’s all hope that Kevin Ware’s
recovery from one of the worst injuries I’ve seen is quick and effective, and
hopefully he becomes a better player from this experience. Now to the game: I wrote
in my preview that Seth Curry may struggle in this game after only getting one
day to rest his sore shin, and that the Duke secondary stars and role players
would have to play the game of their lives for the Blue Devils to have a
chance. Turns out, Seth may have been hampered by the shin, but even at full
strength, I don’t know that it would have mattered against this great
Louisville defense.
A lot of people will tell you how strong Louisville’s press
is, how it has helped them throughout the tournament, and how it will be key
against the smaller Wichita State guards in the Final Four (more on this in a
bit). Rubbish. Sure, the press has helped them, especially in the early rounds,
but theirs is a disciplined press, much more so that the Havoc system that VCU
uses. They cover guards full-court, but only send a trap in the backcourt when
the opposing big isn’t in a position to help. Against Duke, they bothered Quinn
Cook and Tyler Thornton in the backcourt, but Duke didn’t have inordinate
difficulty getting the ball into the frontcourt.
What the Louisville defense really showed was tenacity
defending in the halfcourt. All game, Hill and Siva played bigger than they measure,
bothering Duke’s ball handlers on the perimeter, making pocket passes difficult
and spot-up opportunities almost nonexistent. Again and again, Duke shooters
would catch the ball hesitant about how Louisville’s length would affect the
shot. Even on screen/pop opportunities, the Cardinals would bother both
shooters, blocking a few Ryan Kelly threes and ultimately making this game a
microcosm of his disastrous tournament. Gorgui Dieng held his own against Mason
Plumlee, and though Duke found a few plays here and there to creatively screen
Dieng and otherwise get Mason alone under the rim, he wasn’t able to
consistently attack Dieng one-on-one, allowing the Louisville defenders to stay
at home on the perimeter.
On offense, Louisville’s Russ Smith did what he has done all
tournament: take the ball to the rim. Hard. I actually thought that Cook and
especially Thornton had done a passable job on the perimeter, but a player with
Hill’s mindset and ability will eventually get to the rim, and that opens up
the game for everyone else. To me, that was the difference in the game. Duke
relied on players getting the ball on the perimeter, going away from the rim to
hit threes, while Louisville relied on Smith and Siva taking the ball to the
paint. I know that Duke has played this way for ages, but even when you live by
the three, there needs to be a strategy to not die by it. The 2010 title team
had a guy that could do that: Jon Scheyer. It seemed that every time that Duke
team could let a game get away from it, there was Scheyer making a smart play
to get the ball in a good spot. I completely trusted him with the ball and the
decisions he would make, and I just didn’t have that same faith in Quinn Cook,
who can be somewhat volatile. That 2010 team also had in Brian Zoubek and Lance
Thomas two relentless rebounders, essential for corralling long rebounds from
missed threes (key in the game against Butler). This Duke team just came up a
few plays short.
Wichita State over Ohio State: The Shockers punched the
Buckeyes in the mouth. The Shockers have surprised me with their defensive
tenacity all tournament, especially against Gonzaga, who they threw entirely
out-of-rhythm. In this game, the Shockers added to defense some tremendous rebounding,
a hallmark of this team throughout the season. It isn’t surprising that with
their size in Carl Hall and Cleanthony Early that they would overwhelm other teams
in the Missouri Valley Conference, but the Buckeyes are a Big 10 school. And
the Shockers didn’t care. They came into this game with attitude, and
out-played the Buckeyes on the interior, with all 5 Shockers helping to rebound
on offense and defense.
Defensive rebounding was important because in the first
half, Ohio State was absolutely cold from the field. They were getting good
offense out of Aaron Craft penetration, even though he had a terrible shooting
night from the field and from the line. Buckeye shooters got the ball in rhythm
and in good spots on the court, but just couldn’t by a basket from midrange or
beyond the arc. That led to a lot of rebounding scrums and fouls on the Buckeye
bigs, which kept Wichita State’s offense rolling through the end of the first
half.
In the second half, Shockers’ shooting expanded the lead to
20 points, leading certain analysts to conclude that the Shockers had all of
the “momentum.” Rubbish. In this definition of momentum, the Shockers gained
momentum by hitting shots while the Buckeyes lost momentum by missing wide-open
shots. Such analysis is anathema to process-based coaching and analysis, where
outcomes can differ, but the process is of utmost importance. The Buckeyes were
playing well, and were beginning to understand that rebounding would be a battle.
Just because they couldn’t buy a shot means they didn’t have momentum? Rubbish.
I believe in momentum in certain situations. In today’s
stats versus old-school universe, there is often a binary between the two. The
stat-geeks often claim that momentum doesn’t exist, for similar reasons as I
described. Momentum can be something as fickle as a contested 3-point shot
made/or missed, ignoring the process by which that shot was created. If a
player jacks a three early in the clock, that is a terrible process. But late
in the clock where there is limited ability to create offense, a contested
three is preferable to a mid-range attempt. The point is: there is far more to
learn from this situation than simply where if the ball went in. In other case,
however, momentum can be useful for examining the psyche of a team and how well
they can execute the processes that their coaches put in place.
For example, the Super Bowl: the power outage was a turning
point in the game. Even though the direct result of the power outage (re: the
next play) was a failed 49ers turnover, it is clear when watching tape of the
second half that the 49ers offense was different before the outage and after.
After the outage, the line played much better, moving Ravens linemen and
opening running lanes much more effectively than before. The line needed the break
to collectively get back to a run-the-ball mentality, and make the adjustments
necessary to execute that game plan.
In any case, momentum can often be ascribed to something
else that changes the way a team performs. In the 49ers example, it could perhaps
be more accurately described as mental execution by linemen. In the Wichita
State/Ohio State game, the difference was who was hitting shots. Later in the
second half, when the Buckeyes started hitting the same shots they were missing
in their first half, they began to cut into the lead. They also tightened on
defense, especially against penetration by Malcolm Armstead and Fred Vanvleet,
but again, this isn’t necessarily momentum. I attribute the aggression to OSU
guards, like Craft, who were no longer afraid of contact/fouling, with the end
of the game near. A high foul count early in the game creates uncertainty
because of the amount of time left: coaches/players don’t know how long a player
will be unavailable if he fouls out. Late in the game, with more certainty,
players can afford to be more aggressive with a better risk/return calculation.
Anyway, the Buckeyes started closing and Wichita State
started running very simple offensive sets. Again, this can be called “momentum”
(just like @YahooNoise did on Twitter, for which I called him out for), but is
more accurately the way teams play with a lead. They try to run 20-25 seconds
off the clock and then use a simple pick-and-roll/guard penetration to get some
sort of shot off. Buckeye defenders were ready for this, and that helped them
contain penetration more effectively. In addition, the Buckeye athleticism
finally found an outlet in the press Thad Matta decided to go to, which the
smaller Wichita State guards seemed to have trouble with (Vanvleet inbounding?
Maybe someone taller…).
At the end of the game, it came down to a matter of a few
possessions, and at a key juncture, Wichita State got a huge offense board from
Tekele Cotton and Ohio State missed some perimeter shots. With only a couple of
ticks left, Wichita State drew a gorgeous play where Cotton slipped a screen
and got the ball on the run in the front court, with Craft in pursuit. He
should have dribbled away and soaked up the seconds, but instead went for the
layup, allowing Craft to foul him (it was already a 4-point, two –possession game).
This turned out to be pretty moot, as the Buckeyes just didn’t have any time
left.
Many people will have you believe that this was a shock,
Wichita State knocking out a Big 10 school to make the Final Four. It wasn’t.
They were athletic, skilled, and well-coached. This is a good team that plays
well together and knows each other. They can beat any team remaining, and have
as good a shot as the other three schools at winning it all. It’s against the
odds for any school to win (67/68
schools end with a loss), no matter what conference they’re from.
Final Four Pick: Wichita State over Louisville: I’ll admit.
This is a pick influenced by the Shockers’ great story as a 9 seed within a win
of the final. I think this will be the hardest game they are playing all
season, and think they will have a tremendously difficult job cracking this
tough Louisville defense. But this is why they will win: First, guards Armstead
and Vanvleet are smaller guys, even smaller than the Duke guards Louisville
just eviscerated, but they both rely more on penetration than shooting. I think
they will be more successful against Louisville than Duke did. Second, I think
Carl Hall can at least match Gorgui Dieng inside. I love Dieng’s game, his way
of blocking without fouling, a smartness with the ball on offense. But Hall is
no slouch, and has beaten bigger/tougher/more athletic players all tournament.
Third: this is kind of like a first round giant versus Cinderella matchup, and
one thing that consistently predicts Cinderella success is rebounding. Wichita
State is the number 7 rebounding team by rebound %; Louisville is 57th.
If the Shockers are to win it all, they have to remain hot and rebound well.
Michigan over Florida: This game was a joke. Florida didn’t
look very interested in showing up. Trey Burke didn’t have a great shooting
game, but he set up guys all over the court, including Nik Stauskus, who scored
22 points on 8 shots, including 6-6 from three. I thought that Florida’s
offense looked stagnant for long periods against FGCU, and that showed up in
this game with 15 turnovers, 41% shooting, 65% shooting from the stripe, and
20% beyond the arc. Mitch McGary certainly had something to do with that with
his constant activity on the perimeter, and I can’t say how much of a
difference he has made for the Wolverines this postseason. With him and Burke,
they have a shot against anybody.
Syracuse over Marquette: Indiana tried to attack Syracuse’s
zone by passing the ball around the perimeter—that didn’t work. Marquette tried
to attack Syracuse’s zone by going one-on-one and taking the ball into the
teeth of the trapping, helping defense. That didn’t’ work either. The whol time
watching this game, I thought to myself: “Marquette is a Big East school? They
look totally unprepared for this!!!” Granted, this is kind of the way the
Golden eagles have played all season, with a heavy reliance on Vander Blue. I
thought that they relied a bit too much on him against Miami, though they got a
win, and it came back to bite them. He had more turnovers that makes in this
game, and while at times in the second half he looked like he was the only one
keeping Marquette in the game, his mistakes were costly, especially for a team whose
other four starters shot 2-13. In fact, only 3 Marquette starters scored at
all.
On offense, all five Syracuse starters scored and they
collectively shot 19-47. Triche and Carter Williams, the two Syracuse stars,
actually didn’t have an outsized impact. I was incredibly impressed by Carter
Williams’ ability to run his team and get them in good situations with his
decision making and patience. He showed that ability to influence the game
without dominating offensive possessions, and his defense was also key at the
top of that zone. He is one of the rare Syracuse products that I’m genuinely
enthusiastic about at the next level, someone perfect for a team like the Utah
Jazz.
Syracuse over Michigan: This will be a very interesting game
of two teams that both rely tremendously on their starting five. Here’s why I think
Syracuse wins: Michigan has not played a backcourt as talented and disciplined
as Syracuse’s. Kansas’ duo of Elijah Johnson and Ben McLemore is good, but
Johnson is streaky (and had bad voodoo in that game, you know why) and McLemore
can disappear in big moments. In Michigan’s loss against Wisconsin, Badgers
guards Ben Brust and Traevon Jackson found range and scored 30 of the team’s 68
points. Penn State’s three guards scored 51 of 84 points in that surprising
win, with Jermaine Marshall going for 25 on 17 shots. I know sample size is
small, but I still think that Triche and Carter Williams will play well
offensively and be disruptive defensively.
That brings us to the zone: I’ve heard from numerous
coaches, analysts, and even players that this Syracuse zone is unlike any
before it. It moves and changes in unpredictable ways, and though Trey Burke
has been incendiary, easily the player of the tournament and the year, I think
he may struggle with the dual burden of containing either Syracuse guard on D
and then running good offense against the 2-3. The one caveat: Mitch MicGary
has played out of his mind for Michigan this whole tournament, and may have a beast
of a day on the offensive boards if Syracuse’s zone defenders can’t locate him
and box out correctly. And as he’s shown time and time again, Trey Burke can
win games all by himself. Regardless of the outcomes, I believe we’re in for a
great Saturday’s worth of games.
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